TAM Talks: Strong Earnings Calm Inflation Fears
Markets finished the week on solid footing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit fresh highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and broadly positive economic data. Chinese equities also performed well despite its well-known structural challenges. Nvidia jumped after receiving US clearance to sell AI chips to China, while results from banks, airlines and consumer names surprised to the upside. In fixed income, corporate bonds outperformed government debt, while short-term US yields dipped briefly after rumours that Trump might fire Fed Chair Powell. US inflation for June rose slightly ahead of expectations, as the impact from tariffs is beginning to...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Talks: The Boy Who Cried Tariff
Last week was a textbook case of how desensitisation works in markets. When investors are exposed to a constant stream of threats, our ability to care fades. What once caused panic now barely moves the needle. In fact, what used to be called “the boy who cried wolf” has been rebranded by the financial press as the “TACO Trade”—Trump Always Chickens Out. Despite the latest wave of tough rhetoric and formal notices sent to over 20 countries, equities barely flinched. The tariff deadline has now been pushed to 1st August. As we move closer, we expect more threats and a...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Talks: Dodging Bullets, For Now
This was a week when everything could’ve gone wrong—but didn’t. Quite the opposite. Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire (for now), oil prices fell—easing inflation concerns—and US economic data continues to soften just enough to make rate cuts more likely, without sparking recession fears. The result? A more dovish Fed narrative is taking hold, and that’s music to investors’ ears. Equities had a strong week, with some US indices hitting new all-time highs. Bonds also rallied, helped by the moderation in inflation expectations. While most indices have surged, one thing has collapsed: volatility. The first half of 2025 has...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Talks: Cooling Prices, Hot Politics
Markets entered the week hoping for calm and got just enough of it—until oil surged late Friday on renewed Middle East tensions. A shaky but welcome “framework” trade deal between the U.S. and China, coupled with softer-than-expected inflation readings, helped boost investor mood. But as always, the fine print—and the follow-through—will matter more than the headline. Global equities ended the week slightly lower but remain close to record highs. Bonds found support from soft economic data and strong demand at a U.S. Treasury auction. Gold continued to offer diversification benefits amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Washington and Beijing...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Talks: 24 June 2025
Middle East Tensions Cause Oil Whiplash What Happened: Markets were jolted early Monday after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear targets sparked fears of supply disruption. Oil surged more than 6% but reversed sharply later in the day as Iran refrained from targeting energy infrastructure. Brent settled back below $70, calming energy-linked inflation fears. Overall Impact: The market’s rapid recovery underscores how fragile sentiment remains around geopolitical headlines. While the immediate threat appears contained, ongoing volatility in oil markets could complicate inflation dynamics and central bank decision-making in the months ahead. For now, investor appetite for risk remains intact, but sensitive...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Talks: 10 June 2025
Not long ago, investors were bracing for a radical shift in US economic policy—a period of fiscal detox that stood in stark contrast to years of aggressive government spending. But Trump’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill”—the largest tax cut in American history—delivered a major plot twist, reigniting concerns over deficits and a ballooning national debt. It also triggered a public fallout between Trump and Elon Musk, playing out in true Jerry Springer Show fashion across social media. Trump threatened to cut federal contracts to Musk’s companies, with Tesla shares taking a hit. Musk responded by calling for Trump’s impeachment and...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Bites: Gold, the US, and Interest Rates
Gold… at the mercy of dollar strength? Gold prices opened December on a subdued note, slipping to approx. $2,630 an ounce as the U.S. dollar strengthened and market optimism for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December waned. The pullback follows an election period where gold's safe-haven appeal was expected to rise, but instead faltered amid shifting market dynamics. Investors remain cautiously optimistic about gold’s trajectory in 2025, though the strength of its recovery may be less pronounced than previously forecast. Meanwhile, silver also faced some pressures weighed by Trump-era trade policy uncertainties and a robust dollar. However, potential stimulus...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Bites: US tech, China, and the US election
Changing of the guard Markets in Q3 staged a leadership change. Those infamous high-flying US tech stocks started to return negative performance, whilst the stocks of companies unrelated to US tech surged forward. These stocks, whose prices are at a much lower level than that of US tech, were seen as a good relative value investment in Q3. Predominantly, the step change which saw investors moving away from the Artificial Intelligence (AI) hype and into the stocks of real-world companies came off the back of the US cutting interest rates whilst economic growth remained stable, and inflation coming under control....
Read the Full ArticleTAM Bites: UK Equities, the Federal Reserve, and meeting Cathie Wood
Are UK Equities back in vogue? Over the last three months, both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 UK indices have returned over three times that of the S&P 500 (9.94 and 9.93% vs 2.89%, via FE Analytics). This comes at a time where the UK is bracing for a general election, now just one month away. The polls suggest that Labour have a healthy lead over the incumbent Conservative party. And we await to see whether ex-UKIP leader Nigel Farage announcing he is running as Leader of Reform UK, will dampen the Tories chances further. We hasten to add...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Bites: Outperforming ARC, Investment Opportunity, and UK Equities
Outperforming ARC Our entire range of Active and Enhanced Passive portfolios have outperformed their respective ARC GBP benchmarks over 1 year, 3 years and 5 years. As well as 1, 3, and 6 months to Q1 end. The ARC indices’ portfolios are an amalgamation of 350,000 underlying portfolios from over 120 UK wealth managers. The performance of the cohort is grouped and the average of which has provided an invaluable insight into the performance of the broad wealth management industry, over a full spectrum of risk profiles. Source: FE Analytics. For more information and access to the ARC indices: www.suggestus.com...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Bites: Bull Runs, Emerging Markets, and The PRI
Bull Runs The market has been strong in 2024, following on from the fantastic Christmas rally where many clients saw more gains in November and December than what they might see from an entire year under normal conditions. Whilst this is fantastic news, the prudent investor will always be weary of the market moving too far too fast, as it raises the fear of it moving backwards at the same speed. Interestingly, at present the market doesn’t look too extended. Stocks like the ‘Magnificent 7’ have done extremely well but we see little resembling ‘euphoria’ when you look to most...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Bites: Equity Risk Premium, Sustainability Hub, and the Magnificent 7
The “Equity Risk Premium” is a term many read about but often skim over. It’s essentially the additional return an investor expects to receive from investing into higher risk stocks rather than bonds, which are usually lower risk. Investing in shares has carried a positive risk premium over bonds going back to 2008, which has more than compensated investors willing to take that greater risk if it means greater rewards. However, after the torrid 2022 and the average 2023, the bond market is looking like a high-quality, low-cost, income yielding investment to challenge the crown of investing in stocks. This...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Bites: Markets, Sustainable Investing, and Artificial Intelligence
The end of the calendar year witnessed a strong uptick in financial markets, with both bonds and equities, the main investment components, seeing gains not witnessed all year. This was reflected in all TAM client portfolios with annual gains of 5-8% depending on risk profile. It's not uncommon for financial markets to rise over the festive period, and such rises are affectionately referred to as the "Santa rally". 2023 was no different, and in fact, was the strongest on record, ignoring the present weak state of the global economy. Markets often pre-empt the possibility of better times, so maybe, just...
Read the Full ArticleTAM Bites: Markets, Bonds and COP28
With many market participants believing that central banks around the world are now finished with raising their interest rates, markets are looking forward to 2024 and the prospect of stimulus from interest rate cuts and the possibility of tax incentives as many governments around the world enter election years. TAM remains on the front foot in terms of investing into areas of bonds and equities we see as particularly attractive, such as corporate bonds, UK equities, emerging markets and alternatives, that offer real value right now. Given this, should positivity continue into the new year, we remain poised to capture...
Read the Full ArticleIntroducing TAM Bites!
TAM Bites is the latest addition to our adviser communications, which aims to provide you with regular bites of information relating to key market activity, and a brief insight into TAM’s process and strategy. Just scroll down to read on and enjoy! Property funds (investment in commercial property) have become a cause for concern as many are now set to close. There are several recent examples of major institutions shutting down their property funds, and some others are “gating”, which means slowing or stopping redemptions. The funds are thus illiquid and may cause concern to clients needing cash at any...
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