18th February 2026
UK inflation drops to 3%, boosting BoE rate-cut hopes
UK inflation fell to 3.0% in January (from 3.4%), the lowest since March 2025, matching forecasts and strengthening the case for earlier Bank of England easing. The ONS said cheaper petrol, lower air fares after December’s jump, and softer food prices (notably bread/cereals and meat) did most of the work, partly offset by pricier hotels and takeaways; core inflation edged down to 3.1% and services inflation to about 4.4%. With growth barely positive (GDP up 0.1% in Q4), unemployment at a five-year high (5.2%) and wage growth cooling, investors are leaning towards a cut as soon as the 19 March meeting, after the BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 5 February. Markets reacted calmly: sterling was roughly flat to slightly lower and government bond yields dipped as rate-cut bets firmed.
17th February 2026
UK Unemployment at Five Year High
UK unemployment has risen to 5.2% in the three months to December, the highest since early 2021, while pay growth is cooling, a sign the jobs market is losing momentum. The ONS data show wages excluding bonuses rose 4.2%, with private sector pay at 3.4%, suggesting less pressure for firms to keep lifting prices to fund wage bills. That matters for inflation and the Bank of England, which has held Bank Rate at 3.75% but is already split, and markets now see a March cut as increasingly likely if inflation behaves. In markets, expectations of easier policy pushed government bond yields lower and left the sterling weaker.
13th February 2026
US inflation cools, Fed still cautious
US inflation eased in January, with CPI up 2.4% year on year and prices rising 0.2% on the month. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5% on the year, showing services prices are still proving sticky even as energy and rent pressures cool. The fall gives the White House fresh talking points that tariffs are not causing a lasting spike, but the Fed is likely to stay cautious because tariff costs could yet feed through more clearly, and wage driven services inflation may slow only gradually. Investors read it as mildly supportive for rate cuts later in 2026, with markets leaning towards a first cut around mid-year rather than March. After the release, US Treasury yields dipped, the dollar firmed, and shares were mixed.
9th February 2026
Sanae Takaichi secures historic supermajority in Japan
Takaichi's decision to call a snap poll has reshaped Japan's politics in one stroke. The Liberal Democrats emerged with a two thirds supermajority in the 465 seat lower house, their strongest position since 1955, giving her far more room to govern without constant bargaining. That should mean quicker lawmaking, fewer leadership challenges, and a clearer mandate for her agenda on industrial policy and national security. The biggest political test will be her push to reopen debate on revising the 1947 constitution, including the pacifist peace clause, a move that would still require upper house support and a national referendum. Internationally, the result points to tighter alignment with Washington and a firmer posture in the region, which could raise friction with Beijing. Markets reacted positively: the Nikkei hit a record and closed about 4% higher, the yen sat near 156.5 per dollar, and 10 year JGB yields edged up.
5th February 2026
UK interest rate unchanged after tight decision
The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 3.75%, but the split vote and the tone of the statement pointed to further cuts once policymakers see firmer evidence that inflation is on track to return to 2%. The Bank also downgraded the UK outlook, trimming growth forecasts for the next two years and nudging up its unemployment view, arguing that a softer labour market should reduce pay and price pressures. With inflation expected to fall back close to target from April, investors brought forward expectations for the next cut, making March a genuine possibility. Markets reacted quickly: the pound fell about 0.6% to $1.357 and short dated gilts rallied, pushing the two year yield down slighly to around 3.63%.
4th February 2026
Eurozone inflation falls below target
Eurozone inflation fell to 1.7% in January, below the ECB's 2% target, helped by lower energy costs and a stronger euro. Core inflation eased to 2.2% and services inflation to 3.2%, a sign that domestically driven price pressure is cooling, even if services remain higher than the headline rate. With growth still modest, the data supports the view that policy is now restrictive enough, but the ECB is still expected to keep its benchmark rate at 2% at this week's meeting and wait for more confirmation before cutting again. Markets took it in their stride: the euro was little changed around $1.18 and rate pricing still implies only a small chance of another cut by September, with eurozone bond yields broadly steady.
29th January 2026
Gold surges through $5000/oz
Global metals markets are booming, with gold, silver, and copper surging to record highs as investors flock to hard assets amid mounting geopolitical risks and a weakening US dollar. Gold has risen nearly 30% this year, touching almost $5,600/oz, while silver hit $120/oz. Copper, often seen as a barometer of industrial activity, surged past $14,000/tonne, fuelled by speculative inflows into ETFs rather than clear demand signals. Other base metals like nickel, zinc, and aluminium also advanced, lifting the LME base metals index near its 2022 peak. This broad rally reflects growing unease over US fiscal credibility, political uncertainty, and a retreat from the dollar as a haven asset. However, some analysts caution that much of the buying appears momentum-driven rather than tied to real-world demand, with recent data pointing to softness in Chinese industrial activity. While metals remain in favour for now, we await confirmation that these higher prices will prove resillient.
29th January 2026
Federal Reserve signals patience
The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75%, with Chair Jay Powell signalling there is no rush to ease policy despite mounting political pressure. Strong third quarter GDP growth of 4.4%, with projections of up to 5.4%, and signs of a stabilising jobs market underpinned the decision. Powell noted that inflation was in line with expectations and rates were not 'significantly restrictive', suggesting the economy remains on solid footing. The Fed's message was clear: rate cuts are off the table for now unless economic conditions shift materially. While dissent came from Trump-aligned policymakers, broader support for a cautious stance prevailed. Markets responded calmly, with modest gains in the dollar and bond yields, while the S&P 500 was little changed. Although investors still anticipate a cut by summer, Powell's firm tone and emphasis on central bank independence suggest policy will stay data driven, even as political tensions rise.
28th January 2026
S&P 500 hits all time high
The S&P 500 broke above 7,000 points for the first time, signalling renewed investor confidence as markets shook off recent volatility tied to President Trump's Greenland tariffs and overseas bond sell-offs. The rally, driven by a robust start to the US earnings season, saw tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla post strong results, reinforcing belief in the sector's continued dominance. Although the index closed just shy of its record intraday high after the Fed left rates unchanged, Chair Powell's comments confirmed the US economy remains resilient, with rate cuts still likely this year. Analysts expect the earnings season to be one of the strongest since the financial crisis, helping shield equities from geopolitical noise. With AI-related investment continuing to boost productivity and profit expectations, Wall Street remains upbeat, and Goldman Sachs now sees the index hitting 7,600 by year-end. Tech stocks led gains, with Nvidia up 1.6%, supporting a broader market tone of optimism.
21st January 2026
UK prices rise higher than expected
UK inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.4 per cent in December, up from 3.2 per cent in November and above the 3.3 per cent forecast, driven mainly by higher tobacco prices and costly airfares. This keeps inflation above the Bank of England's 2 per cent target and complicates the outlook for interest rate cuts. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, remained at 3.2 per cent, while services inflation inched up to 4.5 per cent, pointing to underlying price pressures. The Bank of England had forecast easing inflation in early 2026 and cut rates to 3.75 per cent in December, but markets now expect the next move could come in June rather than February. The pound was little changed and broader market reaction muted, reflecting uncertainty over future monetary policy and a still subdued UK economy.
20th January 2026
UK jobs data points to rate cuts
UK wage growth slowed in the three months to November, with average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rising 4.5 per cent, down slightly from 4.6 per cent and in line with forecasts, as employers cut staff ahead of the late November Budget, according to official data. Private sector pay, which the Bank of England watches closely as a sign of inflation pressure, dropped more sharply to 3.6 per cent, its slowest pace in years. Public sector wage growth stayed strong at 7.8 per cent, partly due to earlier pay deals. The unemployment rate held at 5.1 per cent, and the number of payroll jobs continued to fall, pointing to a weakening labour market that should help ease inflation. Markets took the news as a sign rate cuts could come later this year, with the pound rising about 0.4 per cent against the dollar after the data was published. Still, most economists think a cut in February is unlikely unless inflation figures out this week come in much lower than expected.
19th January 2026
Europe threatens retation to the US
The European Union is preparing retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion and potential restrictions on US firms in response to Donald Trump's threat to impose duties on European allies who oppose his Greenland ambitions. This marks the deepest crisis in US-EU relations for decades. Trump's plan, which includes 10 per cent tariffs from February 1 on several European nations, has prompted calls from France and Germany to activate new EU powers that could curb access for US tech giants. While some EU states want to maintain dialogue, others insist on firm countermeasures if Trump refuses to back down. The issue is expected to dominate this week's World Economic Forum in Davos, where leaders will meet to seek a resolution. Markets reacted sharply, with European stock futures down 1.5 per cent and gold rising 2 per cent to a record high.
17th January 2026
Donald Trump puts pressure on Europe
Donald Trump has announced new tariffs of 10 per cent on key European economies, set to rise to 25 per cent in June, unless they support his controversial plan to acquire Greenland. The proposed levies target countries including the UK, Germany, France and Denmark, and are framed as a response to Europe's refusal to back the deal. Trump argues the island is essential for US defence, but the move has drawn strong criticism from European leaders who warn it risks undermining NATO and existing trade ties. Mass protests in Greenland and Denmark have signalled fierce public opposition, while EU officials are now reconsidering the ratification of a recent trade agreement with the US. Economically, the threat of tariffs adds to global uncertainty, potentially disrupting supply chains and raising costs. Markets have reacted nervously, with European stocks slipping and safe haven assets like gold edging higher as investors weigh the implications of a widening transatlantic rift.
15th December 2026
UK economy beats expectations in November
UK GDP grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% in November, marking a rebound from October's contraction and lifting hopes the economy may narrowly avoid a technical recession. Growth was driven by services and a 2.1% surge in manufacturing, aided by resumed car production post-Jaguar Land Rover's cyberattack. The positive data, the best monthly print since June, offers some relief amid geopolitical uncertainty, high borrowing costs and anticipation of tax rises. It also reduces the likelihood of an immediate interest rate cut by the Bank of England, with markets maintaining bets for a June cut. Sterling was steady following the release, with limited market reaction.
13th January 2026
US inflation holds steady
US inflation held steady at 2.7% in December, matching November's pace and aligning with forecasts, offering reassurance that price pressures remain contained. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose slightly less than expected at 2.6%, with housing costs being the main driver. Despite lingering above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the figures support the view that inflation has peaked, easing concerns about tariff-driven spikes under Trump's trade policy. Economists anticipate inflation will continue to ease in 2026, though data distortion from last year's government shutdown remains a caveat. The muted inflation print strengthens expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting. Markets responded positively: the two-year Treasury yield fell to 3.52%, futures priced in two rate cuts for 2026, and equities rose while the US dollar softened.
12th January 2026
US Fed Chair under criminal investigation
The U.S. Justice Department has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell over a $2.5bn renovation of the Fed's headquarters. Powell denounced the move as a political attempt to undermine the central bank's independence, linking it to his refusal to sharply cut interest rates as demanded by President Trump. Markets reacted nervously to the perceived threat to the Fed's autonomy, which is crucial for investor confidence and inflation control. Gold surged to a record $4,600 per ounce, reflecting a flight to safety, while the dollar fell and Treasury yields rose slightly, as investors began pricing in higher inflation risks. The S&P 500 futures dipped 0.7% amid heightened uncertainty.
9th January 2026
US hiring comes in weak
US job creation slowed sharply in 2025, with only 50,000 jobs added in December and an annual monthly average of 49,000, the weakest since the Covid downturn. November's unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a four-year high, before edging down slightly to 4.4% in December. Job growth missed expectations, particularly in retail and manufacturing, although the private sector led modest gains. October's losses in government employment reflected the impact of a government shutdown. The labour market appears mixed, with limited hiring and no sign of mass layoffs, leaving the outlook uncertain. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, bringing them to a three-year low of 3.6%, but policymakers remain divided on further easing. Equities were little changed, as investors await clearer signals on economic momentum and the Fed's next move.
4th January 2026
President Trump captures Venezuelan leader
President Trump's dramatic capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and pledge to run Venezuela until a 'safe' transition raises serious geopolitical and economic concerns. Maduro, now in US custody facing narco-terrorism charges, was seized in a raid that also targeted military sites. Trump has vowed to send in US troops if needed and to deploy American oil firms to revive Venezuela's crumbling energy infrastructure. While the move may appeal to oil markets, critics warn it risks mirroring past failed interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. The legality of capturing a foreign head of state is under scrutiny, and Venezuela's government, still functioning under Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, has labelled it a kidnapping. Latin American allies are split, and major powers like China and Russia have condemned the action. Markets are on edge, with oil prices rising slightly on the news, while political uncertainty at home and abroad clouds the outlook for further US rate cuts this year.