Investment Note

Market Insights 2015


Wait for it...

So, another Federal Reserve meeting and another passed opportunity to raise interest rates. The fighting talk (above) from James Bullard quite possibly illustrates the frustration held by those behind the closed doors of the Federal Reserve that they are not going to get pushed around by stock and bond market participants struggling with volatile price movements...

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Black Monday: Time for a performance check

Stock and bond markets have been very volatile in the last couple of days with wild swings around the world. The problem is reported as having started in the Chinese stock market which was down 8.5% on its own “Black Monday” but spread dramatically to the rest of Asia, Japan and all other markets both developed and emerging. 

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Chinese devaluation: Why now?

Last Tuesday, The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) shook global markets from their relative slumber with a sudden and unexpected devaluation of the Chinese Yuan.  The move initially knocked the currency 2% weaker against the US dollar and there were further falls next day as the market got in on the act helping to drive the exchange rate down to a 4-year low.

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Japan: It has to be different this time

We have written up the bull case for Japan repeatedly in recent years and been invested in Japanese equities for most of that time.  Part of the investment rationale was down to the ambitious reform efforts of the Abe administration and partly our belief that the quantitative easing being undertaken was a true commitment to reflate the economy.  

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Review of Q2 2015

The second quarter of the year was a stark contrast to the first, with both global economic and geo-political events souring investor sentiments, leading to some increased volatility and overall decline in financial markets. Positively, despite these sharp falls recorded in many markets, our portfolios performed well, mitigating losses and out-performing their respective risk benchmarks.

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Stick to your principles

Chucking the rule book out with any or all principles in the short term is not unfamiliar behaviour in the EU and maybe that’s why we all expected a deal by now. Perhaps this was a tad too optimistic because it’s been a busy start to the week in the wake of the breakdown of talks between Greece and its creditors...

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Market news

Global stock markets recovered from the December sell off when oil and mining stocks led the market down amid fears of a slowing economy as the price of oil stayed at the lowest level since 2009.

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The Winner Takes It All

So who saw that coming? Well, hats off to the “well groomed” Glaswegian pensioner, who remains anonymous, who bet £30,000 on a Conservative majority at 7/1. A member of the TAM investment team also had the same bet...

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The Final Countdown

TAM portfolio positioning ahead of the UK general election. So the election is nearly upon us and stock and bond market attention has shifted to what we may wake up to on May 8th...

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Real estate’s safe house for ‘bond refugees’

Cast your mind back to the 2008 crisis. It seemed, the only thing outpacing the unsecured mortgages being underwritten was the speed at which they were being re packaged and issued back to Wall Street. Out of the ashes of this turbulent time in global economics has grown an asset class...

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Japan: Rise and shine!

Over the years, one has learned to be a little wary of putting out bullish investment notes on Japan. The financial writing landscape is littered with the graves of bull notes written by those who thought this time was different.

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Avoiding falls on the fells

As far as I know, the great Lakeland fell walker, Alfred Wainwright was, for all his supposed grumpiness, never a keen follower of the Gilt market. But if he had, his eloquent writings about the mountains, in all their moods, would at times be perfectly suited to the challenges faced by mountaineers and bond managers alike. 

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FTSE playing footsie with its 1999 record

Break Up, break out or break down? It’s December 30th 1999, the FTSE 100 has just closed at a record high of 6,950.60. At the time the world was full of promise as it entered a new millennium...

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A Russian winter

As a Russian winter bites a new cold war begins. With the crisis in Ukraine potentially tipping back into open warfare and the EU looking to escalate sanctions this is a short piece on the Russian economy and its population’s ability to withstand the current sanctions and austerity measures to live in Mr Putin’s newly coined “Mafia state”. 

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Q€

If size matters then Mario Draghi may just about have delivered. The €1.1 trillion quantitative easing programme announced on 22nd January is bigger than markets had hoped for given the opposition he faced from the German Bundesbank...

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Great Expectations

If you were a stock market strategist harbouring secret desires to be a writer of novels or soap opera storylines, you might have been tempted to write the entire chapter or script for 2014 in advance, for there were plenty of reasons to feel confident that the problems of the global economy in 2013 were at least well understood...

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