Investment Note

Market Insights 2018


A Message to UK Clients from the CEO

Looking at how far we have come since 2008 and the financial crisis, is nothing short of jaw dropping. Despite this being touted as the most “hated bull market in history”, the gains in core markets have been extraordinary since the crisis lows of 2008/2009. The S&P 500 has outperformed the FTSE 100, but for the first time we are now seeing real synchronised global growth with a) trade between emerging markets nearly doubling since 2008, and b) investment flows into the G20 double what they were before the financial crisis.

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Famous Five Save Global Markets

Few investors amongst us won’t have heard of the exploits of the Famous Five, a group of four school friends and their faithful dog Timmy. This iconic group of lifelong friends, whilst on summer holidays in the English countryside would embark on a series of adventures which either resulted in the uncovering of buried treasure or the foiling of whatever criminal exploits were taking place around them.

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Shout loudly and wave your stick around

President Theodore Roosevelt once said, in relation to US foreign diplomacy, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” It seems President Trump has re-tasked that phrase to read, “Shout loudly (over twitter) and wave your stick around as often as possible.”

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“That’s another fine mess you've gotten me into!”

In the wake of the last Italian election, we released an article highlighting the volatile nature of Italian politics. Since then, and true to form, Italy has managed to deliver another bout of political chaos which now marks the longest period of uncertainty for Italian politics since WW2. We will endeavour to explain where we are on this roller coaster and our position for clients.

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Trade Wars: The Empire Strikes Back

When US President Donald Trump came to power last year, he brought with him an ambitious list of goals, including; building a wall between the US and Mexico, preventing some ethnic groups from entering the US, reforming corporate tax, withdrawing the US from climate pacts and addressing the trade deficit with China. He wanted to drain the swamp and fight the status quo -  a rebel if you will. He promised to shake things up and has recently been doing just that, by pursuing his protectionist agenda - much to the dismay of global markets. The threat of a so called ‘trade war’ is rising, and the main target of Trump’s opening salvos – China – can and will strike back.

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